The thing is Bitcoin can’t be a store of value AND shooting to the moon.
To be the store of value it needs to have a stable price. Akin to GOLD.
But it’s advocates saying it will shoot up in value are effectively saying it will be volatile and hence cannot be a store of value.
This leads to the conclusion that those advocating are simply those who hold vast amounts of it and are simply talking the price up to find a great fool.
"Bitcoin looks to be doing something it was created to do and not just behaving like another risk-on asset correlated to other risky asset classes like technology stocks."
Both tracked pretty closely with one another, over the periods each of those symbols existed, at least per this free online tool. Correlation coefficients (rounded): $BITO 0.85 (Nov 2021-on), $BTF also 0.85 (also Nov 2021-on), and $GBTC 0.80 (June 2015-on).
There might well be better symbols than these, which are at best likely to be just crude proxies for Bitcoin. And maybe better comparison tools, as well, which directly accept crypto ticker symbols. But it's a start ...
In contrast, the correlation coefficient for $GLD (Dec 2004-on) with $SPY was lower, 0.66. And for $SILJ (Dec 2012-on) a mere 0.26.
BTW, my interest was piqued in part by this, a minuscule two-day sampling which showed $BTC and $ETH moving somewhat closely with the US stock markets after an 'inflation scare' CPI announcement in November 2021:
The thing is Bitcoin can’t be a store of value AND shooting to the moon.
To be the store of value it needs to have a stable price. Akin to GOLD.
But it’s advocates saying it will shoot up in value are effectively saying it will be volatile and hence cannot be a store of value.
This leads to the conclusion that those advocating are simply those who hold vast amounts of it and are simply talking the price up to find a great fool.
Nice one!
Spotted a typo I believe first part 750 million dollars MC Pepe 👀
👍🏽
"Bitcoin looks to be doing something it was created to do and not just behaving like another risk-on asset correlated to other risky asset classes like technology stocks."
What have you learned about that so far, Douglas?
I tried comparing the ticker symbols $BITO, $BTF, and $GBTC, respectively, against the S&P 500 $SPY ETF at https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/stockcorrelationinput.php, and setting the Start Year to 2002.
Both tracked pretty closely with one another, over the periods each of those symbols existed, at least per this free online tool. Correlation coefficients (rounded): $BITO 0.85 (Nov 2021-on), $BTF also 0.85 (also Nov 2021-on), and $GBTC 0.80 (June 2015-on).
There might well be better symbols than these, which are at best likely to be just crude proxies for Bitcoin. And maybe better comparison tools, as well, which directly accept crypto ticker symbols. But it's a start ...
In contrast, the correlation coefficient for $GLD (Dec 2004-on) with $SPY was lower, 0.66. And for $SILJ (Dec 2012-on) a mere 0.26.
BTW, my interest was piqued in part by this, a minuscule two-day sampling which showed $BTC and $ETH moving somewhat closely with the US stock markets after an 'inflation scare' CPI announcement in November 2021:
https://twitter.com/aronro/status/1458885217716891648